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Friday, October 22, 2004

With the help of one of my favorite websites, let's take a look at how the Jays financial situation shapes up in 2005 and see what kind of cash they will have on hand to spend on personal. Below is a list of the guaranteed contracts the Blue Jays have going into next season:

Miguel Batista - $4.75M
Roy Halladay - $10.50M
Eric Hinske - $3M
Kerry Lightenberg - $2.5M
Ted Lilly - $3.1M
Vernon Wells - $2.9M
Frank Catalanotto - $2.5M

Total= $29.25M

Rumor has it, the Blue Jays are going to spend about $50M on their roster next year, so this gives them roughly $20M to spend on free agents, right? Wrong. First, The Blue Jays are going to need to fill out the rest of the roster. Let's take a look at how that will look. Below I've outlined an estimate of which players the Jays will have on the 25-man roster when they break camp, along with an estimate of how much I think they will make.


Vinnie Chulk - $305,000
Bob File - $315,000
Jason Frasor - $305,000
Chris Gomez - $815,000
Orlando Hudson - $600,000 (assuming a long term deal similar to Wells and Hinske. Won't be for as much though)
Reed Johnson - $360,000
Frank Menechino - $350,000
Greg Zaun - $500,000
Guillermo Quiroz - $305,000
Alex Rios - $305,000
Justin Spier - $1.70M (Made $1.60 this year, I think we might bring him back)
Russ Adams - $300,000
Dave Bush - $310,000
Gustavo Chacin - $305,000
Eric Crozier - $305,000

This brings our roster to 22 players and adds an additional $7.080M to our payroll, making it a total of $36,330,000. Once again, assuming a roster costing the team $50M, the Jays now have $13,670,000 left to spend on free agents. Not a bad little sum of cash. So where does it go? Let's look at how the above roster shapes up.

SP: Halladay, Lilly, Batista*, Bush, Chacin
RP: Lightenberg, Chulk, File, Frasor, Spier
OF: Johnson, Catalanotto, Wells, Rios
IF: Crozier, Hudson, Adams, Hinske, Gomez, Menechino
C: Quiroz, Zaun
DH: Open

*Note: I hate Batista in the bullpen. He just walks too many people. We've got lots of righties we can put in the pen so I'd rather see him in the rotation. Hopefully the new pitching coach straightens him out in Spring Training next year.

Assuming the Blue Jays use an 11-man pitching staff, it looks like they are one man short and need a lefty in the pen. There are lots of names out there but we really don't know who will fit best until everyone files for free agency. The Blue Jays spent $850,000 on Valerio De Los Santos (remember him) in '04, so lets assume they'll spend around $1M on a lefty this season. This brings our cash down to $12,670,000, with two roster spots now open. Looking at the roster makeup, the most glaring need, is a lefty and a righty bat with pop. I'm going to stay away from names right now, as too much still needs to happen before we know who is available. But, what I'd like to see the Jays do, is bring in a young righty who can team up with Crozier and form a nice little platoon. I believe this is someone we'll probably have to get via a trade as young power hitting right handed hitters just don't fall out of trees. I'm envisioning giving up one of our prospects, to get someone who can eventually take over the first base position full time down the road. And, a mashing veteran left handed bat (Durazo! Durazo! And no, I don't think we can bring back Delgado at a price that will work for both parties) who can hit in the DH spot most of the time. Of the roughly $12.5M we have left, I think this is where we'll see the cash go.

In conclusion, it looks like the Jays are going to have some cash to throw around. I don't expect them to sign any of the big time free agents but at the same time, I think they are going to bring in two guys who will be very effective. Their glaring need is middle of the order power, so it will be interesting to see who those guys end up being. When the WS ends and there is a more complete list of who's available, I'll take a deeper look into who the Jays should look at.