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Tuesday, September 14, 2004

The Jays signed Frank Catalanotto to a 2-year deal yesterday which will pay him $2.7 million over the next couple of seasons. This is a raise from the $2.3 million Frank was making in 2004. Before having season ending surgery on his
right external oblique fascia he had a line of .293/.344/.390 for the season. The slugging number is definitely down but that can probably be attributed to being hampered by the injury. He was pretty much jogging hits out by the end of the year.



What do I think of the deal? I think it's another example of JP Ricciardi recognizing an undervalued player and taking advantage of the situation. Some of you may be asking yourself why he would sign a guy who just had season ending surgery and was only able to play 75 games this year. I believe he was signed because he just had season ending surgery. Look at it from Catalanotto's side. The guy is going to be 31 years old about a month into the 2005 season. He just had surgery on an injury that cost him the rest of 2004. Now, the GM for the team he's been on the past two years is offering him not only a contract but a 2-year contract with a raise. Knowing the direction the market has been going lately, as a flood of players have been available every year, why wouldn't he jump at the chance for a little security?

From the Blue Jay perspective, this signing does come with some risk. The surgery he had was to repair his right external oblique fascia. He could re-injure himself next year and then this contract doesn't look so good. But, I think the chance is relatively low as Frank has already had the surgery and Spring Training is still a long, long way off. My original thoughts were the Jays were bringing in Catalanatto to serve as the left handed DH in 2005. But, after reading JP Ricciardi's comments about wanting more veteran bats in a young lineup I'd say he'll probably open up in LF. Gabe Gross does not quite look ready for the big show and could use another year in Syracuse. An OF of Cat - Wells - Rios won't be too bad for 2005.

Finally, the last question is whether Catalanatto is worth the money. For the most part, it is tough to gauge what kind of year he had in 2004. The average and OBP numbers were more or less in line with his career but his SLG was down. So, to compare, let's use his stats from 2003 and look at how he would have done against his OF peers in 2004.

Average. Not normally a good offensive indicator but it may apply to Catalanatto a little more because I think he could hit .300 in his sleep. His .293 average would have placed him in a tie for 20th for ML OF's. Not too bad. I'd say the chances are pretty high he'll hit .290 - .310 if healthy next year.

On base percentage. He's got a little Ichiro in him as he does not take a lot of walks (but does not strike out much either. Something the Jays have done a ton of in 2004). His OBP is normally driven by an average very near .300. In this case, last year his OBP was .351. I'd like to see something a little higher but not too bad. This OBP would be good enough for 32nd among ML OF's.

Slugging. In 2003 his SLG percentage was .472. Other than his great 2001 year (.330/.391/.490) this was his best year for slugging the ball. He's never going to be a huge HR threat but he can bang out the doubles. His 2003 slugging percentage would have placed him tied for 66th. But, then again we know he's not a HR threat, Ricciardi knows this and the Jays aren't paying him like he is a HR threat.

Finally, in terms of OPS (On base percentage plus slugging. A good, not great offensive metric) he would have placed 29th amongst his peers. So what we have is an average defensive outfielder who is a good offensive performer. The reason why this is a good move is because Ricciardi was able to lock him up for only $5.4 million over the next two years. This provides cost certainty and great value. Pat Burrell, Craig Biggio, Mark Kotsay, Torii Hunter, Geoff Jenkins. All of these guys make more then the Cat and these are the guys with similar OPS numbers. Smells like a bargain to me.

All in all, I believe it's a good signing, as long as Catalanatto can come back and be healthy. He'll provide a great bat in the #2 hole and pound out a bunch of doubles. If the Jays get him a right-handed platoon partner the deal will look even better as the aggregate will be very strong. One concern I do have is the Jays need to add a couple home run threats to the lineup. If the OF is Cat, Wells and Rios, they won't get much power out of those guys. Vernon Wells is a 30-HR guy but Rios has not and probably won't develop his power for another year or two. A DH and a 1B who can hit the long ball must be on the shopping list for JP. It wouldn't hurt if we could get 25-30 out of Hinske either.